Analysis: Liz Cheney Voted Off the Island and What It May Mean for the Republicans and the 2022 Election Cycle

Welcome to the first of my analysis pieces. Opening this segment is the Republican GOP outvote of Liz Cheney from House Leadership. So why is this important? Liz Cheney comes from GOP and Corporate royalty, being the daughter of Dick Cheney, who was VP through the Bush Jr Presidency and CEO of Haliburton (yes, that Haliburton). As such, in a traditional GOP setting, her position would be secure. However, we know this is no longer a traditional GOP or Democrat setting with divisions occurring within both parties. Likewise, it is an inflection point in the internal conflict happening within the GOP. It is incredibly important as a measure of the power of the Trump Loyalists versus the traditional GOP. Virtually everything else is moving along the status quo.

Democrats and Republicans in the eternal struggle of good versus evil as the theme from “Highlander” plays. Note that is sarcasm. In my next full article, I will go into how U.S. politics is effectively the soap opera of the world, just with a worse plot because nothing effectively changes by design.

There are emerging progressive and left centrist, right centrist, and Trump loyalists. With Liz Cheney’s eviction from leadership today, I will label the party as the Neo-GOP considering the majority have made their alliances clear between the old guard and the new guard. So what does this mean? The Neo-GOP has shifted focus from corporate and revenue generation to hedging their positions using the Trump base. Due to the almost religious zeal that Trump was able to build during his presidential term, the members of the Neo-GOP know that they have the license to effectively do whatever they choose as long as it is at least spun in a manner that supports Trump and his following.

So what does Trump’s following want? Simply to turn back the clock to the 1950s and 60s where there was a strong middle class and social mobility. It is the reality of the waning Neoliberal-Capitalism economic modus operandi being too hard to bear and understand as the cognitive dissonance of the problems being faced today directly conflict with the teachings of our youth. As such, strong figureheads claiming to buck the system and bring back the “old” ways while finding scapegoats to misdirect the appropriately placed rage is a technique used to maintain power during the death throes of an existing system is as old if not older than the written word.

Do not let the term fool you. Liberal in the sense that organizations are free to do as they please regardless of the large-scale impact to keep it succinct. For further information, check here.

It makes sense, really. Human nature and evolution itself have wired us to fear the unknown. As such, when times become “difficult,” we have a driving desire to return to when times were “better” even if they really were not due to the clever mental tricks we have of Rosy Retrospection (found here) and Declinism (found here).

So what does this tell us? That we effectively have two distinct parties now to the right (the GOP and the NEO-GOP, which has more power) and two emerging on the left (Progressives and Left-leaning Centrists), but the left is for another article. Liz Cheney’s removal from her position is a warning shot over the bow of any non-loyalist GOP members remaining and will continue to encourage further radicalization as the non-loyalists black-list grows.

How does this apply to the 2022 election cycle? Really there are too many variables currently to make any meaningful prediction, at least until the fate of HR1 is decided (information found here). If HR1 passes and is in force by 2022, then the NEO-GOP members will most likely lose traction in all but the “reddest” states. There will be a robust leftward shift as the GOP and NEO-GOP begin to dissolve into two distinct parties. More moderate conservative voters will have to choose and will risk having their vote split as often happens when there is a strong third-party candidate in the traditional setting. The more centrist GOP members lose ground to either Trump loyalists or more left-leaning candidates. If HR1 fails to pass, then that is where things will get interesting. With each state and many laws on the table that restricts voting at the state level, it is anyone’s guess due to the nature of the bills being submitted and getting passed that will impact the possible outcomes. If HR1 does pass I will provide a deeper analysis of the possible outcomes.

So, in summary, while the action taken today by the GOP members of the house may seem of little consequence, seeing it as a measure of the GOP in its current form, the reality is, it is the symptom of a bad prognosis of the health of the party.

Thanks for reading!

Neal

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